Traders are expecting all Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs) to fall in price following the release of the latest packaging recycling and recovery figures.
Environment Agency figures covering July to September revealed a 21% drop in the glass aggregate tonnage, while most other materials continued their strong performance seen in the previous quarter.
Plastic tonnage rose from 210,000 in Q2 to 220,000, while paper dropped back slightly to 830,000 and wood stayed roughly the same at around 108,000 tonnes.
The overall recycling figure was nearly 1,700,000 tonnes, nearly matching that for Q2.
Consultancy 360 Environmental said the figures “do not disappoint”, and that plastic and aluminium had performed particularly well.
Clarity Environmental commercial manager Chris Taylor said: “The positive results reported in Q2 have continued into this quarter, and the data shows that we need to hit lower levels in the final quarter of 2014 than have been achieved in every other quarter of the year.
“The overall outlook is very strong and, as a result, buyers are now likely to hold off until prices hit a perceived ebb. We can expect to see a drop in price for every grade from now.”
But he also warned that buyers could take advantage of the PRN prices to buy tonnage in December for 2015: “This could put a spanner in the works as it would result in a two-month Q4, and things could then end up a lot tighter than they currently appear.”
The Environmental Exchange (t2e) said the results were positive and it had seen a busy quarter, with “good support across the markets”.
It added that although glass aggregate was falling short of its target by more than 15,000 tonnes, this would be offset by an increase seen in glass remelt.
But t2e echoed Clarity’s warning over the beginning of 2015: “If the value of PRNs continues to fall, exporters will lose their incentive and this will damage supply at the start of the year.”
Waste accepted or exported in tonnes
Source: Environment Agency packaging database